How and Why to Convert a Betting Line into a Percentage
 
 
Betting Lines Into Winning PercentagesYou can convert the betting line into a percentage to determine what the sportsbook thinks is the exact percentage chance that a fighter has to win a bout. We've included the formulas for doing the calculations yourself below, but there are also moneyline converters available online which will do the work for you.

Here is an example using a fictional fight between Randy Couture and Tank Abbott. In this fictional example, we'll assume that the line looks like this:

Randy Couture -500
Tank Abbott +400

Converting the UFC MMA Moneyline to a Percentage for the Favorite

To figure the percentage chance for the favorite to win the fight, you use the following formula:

Amount to win $1 / (Amount to win $1 + $1) = Favorite %.

Since Couture is at -500, you would need to wager $500 to win $100. This would also mean that you would win $1 for every $5 wagered. These are the numbers you need to plug into the equation:

$5 / ($5 + $1) = 5/6 5/6 = 0.83

So this line assumes that Randy Couture has an 83% chance of winning the fight.

Converting the UFC MMA Moneyline to a Percentage for the Underdog

To figure the percentage chance of the underdog, use the following formula:

1 / (Amount won if wagering $1 + $1) = Underdog’s % chance

Since Abbott is at +400, you would win $4 for every $1 wagered. Plug these numbers into the equation:

1 / ($4 + $1) = 1 / 5 1/5 = 0.20

This line assumes that Tank Abbott has a 20% chance of winning the fight.

Vigorish

Notice that this line has Couture’s chance of winning set at 83% and Abbott’s chance of winning at 20%. That adds up to 103%.

That extra 3% represents how the sportsbook makes its commission, which is also called the vigorish (vig for short).

The Vig - The Vigorish - The Juice on MMA betting

The "vig", "vigorish", or "juice" is the amount charged by a sports book for taking bets. For example, a -110 moneyline means that you have to risk $110 to win $100. That extra $10 is the vig.

Not all sportsbooks charge the same amount of vig. In fact, some may even offer occasional specials in order to draw in new customers. A traditional reduced vig might amount to -105 instead of -110.

If you’re only saving 50 cents, then this reduction may not seem like much. But a $100 wager increases your saving to $5 ($5 vig instead of the usual $10). That’s enough to buy yourself a meal or a pack of smokes. And if you’re betting a dime ($1000), then the savings really start to become obvious. That $50 you’re saving could be used for all sorts of things (like 5 lap dances on half-price night).

If you’re really serious about betting, it’s recommended that you shop around to find the best deal (Bodog is a good place to start).

While -110 seems to be a traditional amount on games like football, this seems to vary greatly when it comes to mixed martial arts. You’ll often find that the vig will even differ from fight to fight at the same sportsbook. And if you lose, you shouldn’t even be concerned about the vig. If you’re betting 11 to win 10, then juice is collected only from the winning bets.

A bettor who wins 50% of the time would pay out 4.55% in vigorish. In fact, the higher your winning percentage, the more vigorish that you’ll have to pay. Winning 100% of the time would amount to 9.09% in vigorish, while winning a paltry 25% of the time would equal 2.27%. Keep in mind that these stats apply only if you’re betting 11 to win 10. Different numbers would produce different percentages, but it should at least give you an idea of how vigorish works.

The serious bettor should always pay attention to the break even percentage. This is the percentage that you’ll need to surpass in the long run to counteract the vig. At traditional lay prices of -110 each way, the break even percentage is 52.38%.

And if you do win enough to beat the vig, then you can proudly refer to yourself as a “sharp.” That’s gambling jargon for a professional or sophisticated gambler. The opposite is a “square,” which is someone who bets like a novice.

Identifying Edges - Finding Value

For each fight, set your own winning percentages for each combatant. Then compare these projections to those found in the moneyline conversions. When you find a difference between your calculations and the line, you've found value. When you have value, you can place profitable bets. (This assumes that your percentage calculations are more accurate than the sportsbook's calculations though.)

Using our previous example, let’s say that you believe Tank Abbott should have a 25% chance of winning based on his experience and punching power. This would work out to a +300 line. Since the posted +400 line gives him a 20% of winning, then we have identified an edge.

Finding a perceived edge does not mean that you will win, of course. In fact, you should still expect to lose that bet three out of four times. However, the one win in the series should still allow you to show a profit on your wager.

More pages in our guide to betting on UFC and wagering on MMA events:

Disclaimer

We serve a worldwide audience, and what applies in one country or state may not apply in another. Before you run out and start gambling on mixed martial arts events, be sure and familiarize yourself with the laws in your area. If you’re particularly concerned, you might even consider consulting with a lawyer or local politician. Remember, compliance with the law is the responsibility of each and every individual. Translation - don’t blame us if “the man” knocks on your door at three in the morning.
 
 

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