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UFC 78 Validation - UFC 78 Betting
Here are our picks for the fights. UFC 78 Preliminary Card(Lightweight) Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio (14-5) vs. Luke “Lil’ Hulk” Caudillo (15-8)Marcus Aurelio is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu master and holds a win over badass
lightweight Takanori Gomi, but he’s also on a three fight losing streak,
including a decisive loss to Clay Guida at UFC 74. Luke Caudillo, a ground and
pound practitioner, is also coming off a loss in his UFC debut. The UFC has high hopes for Aurelio in the lightweight division, and this strikes me as a fight where the UFC is simply feeding him Caudillo. While anything can happen in MMA, I would be very surprised if “Maximus” isn’t able to submit an opponent who seems to have a vulnerability to submissions. Our UFC 78 prediction? Winner: Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio (Lightweight) Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon (14-3) vs. Jason Reinhardt (18-0)The undefeated Joe Reinhardt is known for his skills on the ground, but how
much does he have left at 38 years of age? Not everyone ages as well as Randy
Couture. He’s stated that he wants to get into a stand-up war with his opponent,
so maybe that’s a sign that senility is already starting to set in. Also keep in mind that Jason Reinhardt has fought as a bantamweight and featherweight for other organizations, so Lauzon is naturally larger at this weight. Given the quality of opponents, his larger size and training with Penn, I see no reason to expect Lauzon to lose. Our UFC 78 prediction? Winner: Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon (Welterweight) Chris “Lights Out” Lytle (34-14-4) vs. Thiago “Pitbull” Alves (18-4)This is a tough fight to call, as both men have faced quality opponents and find themselves at a crossroads in their MMA careers. Chris Lytle has been in 52 professional bouts and faced such fighters as Matt Hughes, Matt Serra, Joe Riggs and Karo Parisyan. Unfortunately, he lost to all the guys I just named, and he recently turned 33 years old. Still, he’s on a two fight win streak, and this skilled boxer and jiu-jitsu expert is always dangerous and hungry to get back into title contention. Thiago Alves is skilled in BJJ and Muay Thai, and he’s coming off a second round TKO of Kuniyoshi Hironaka in September. His performances in the past have been somewhat erratic, but he is on a three fight win streak. Both men have skills standing and on the ground, so this really could go either way. Still, I have a feeling that the younger Alves will pick up a hard-fought victory. Our UFC 78 prediction? Winner: Thiago “Pitbull” Alves (Welterweight) “The Japanese Sensation” Akihiro Gono (27-12-7) vs. “The Barn Cat” Tamdan McCrory (10-0)Can somebody tell me what the hell a “Barn Cat” is? Akihiro Gono has a huge advantage in experience. With 46 career MMA fights, this veteran of PRIDE, Pancrase and Shooto defeated both Hector Lombard and Yuki Kondo in 2006 and went the distance with Dennis Kang. He’s also faced (and lost) to Dan Henderson, Matt Hughes and Mauricio Rua. This will also mark Gono’s debut in the UFC, and his colorful ring entrances will no doubt keep the crowd entertained. But ring entrances don’t win fights, and the undefeated McCrory is no pushover. Tamdan McCrory is also exceptionally tall for a welterweight, measuring in at 6’4” to Gono’s 5’7”. This should give him a decided advantage if the fighter’s stay on their feet, but Gono would be wise to get the fight down and look for the unique submissions which have led some to dub him the “Magic Man.” Maybe I’ve just seen too many Japanese fighters get destroyed over in PRIDE over the years, but I’m going to have to go with McCrory in this one. His massive height advantage will be a major plus if he can just stay on his feet. Something tells me that this one won’t last long. Our UFC 78 prediction? Winner: “The Barn Cat” Tamdan McCrory UFC 78 Main Card(Middleweight) Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (15-4) vs. Joe “El Dirte” Doerksen (39-10)Ed Herman was originally scheduled to take on David Terrell, but Terrell had to drop out due to injury. Joe Doerksen was brought in as a replacement, which may not be doing Herman any favors. With 49 career fights, “El Dirte” has a ton of experience to draw upon. He’s had problems taking his game to the next level, but I don’t know if Herman should really be considered “the next level.” Still, Herman is on a two fight win streak, putting both of his opponents
away by submission. Herman specializes in wrestling, while Doerksen is a BJJ guy
(with 30 wins by submission). That means you can expect this one to go to the
ground early. Once there, I expect Doerksen to draw upon his superior experience
to get the submission win. (Lightweight) Spencer “The King” Fisher (21-3) vs. Frank “The Answer” Edgar (7-0)Many experts believe that this may be the fight of the nigh, as both men have looked impressive in recent fights. Training with the Miletich camp, Spencer Fisher seems equally adept at submitting or knocking out his opponents. He rebounded from a loss to Hermes Franca by capturing a unanimous decision over Sam Stout. Frank Edgar is a skilled wrestler and excellent counter-puncher. He’s undefeated in his MMA career, including two wins in the UFC. Fisher, however, will be his biggest test yet. Both men possess the skills to compete on their feet or on the ground. Still,
there’s something to be said for experience. Fisher is 31, but that’s not a
death sentence. He’s fought better quality opponents and looks poised to move to
the next level. (Light Heavyweight) Houston “The Assassin” Alexander (8-1) vs. Thiago Silva (11-0)After losing his first MMA match, Alexander has won 8 of his last 9 bouts (the other being a no contest). Upon his debut at UFC 71, he promptly knocked out Keith Jardine at 48 seconds of the first round. Built like a tank, Alexander has tremendous knockout power, but he is 35 years old. Silva trains with the Chute Boxe Academy in Brazil and is well-versed in both
Muay Thai and BJJ. The majority of his fights have been by knockout, but a black
belt in BJJ means that he knows how to finish on the ground as well. Karo Parisyan was originally supposed to fight Hector Lombard of Cuba, but visa issued nixed that match-up. Instead, he’ll be matched up against PRIDE veteran Ryo Chonan, who’ll be making his UFC debut. Ryo Chonan usually fights at 183 lbs., so we’ll see if moving down to 170 will adversely affect him. He has a win over reigning middleweight champ Anderson Silva back in 2004, and he has since reeled off a 6-3 record in MMA. Skilled in Muay Thai and Kyokushin, this will be the first fight outside of Japan for the Team Quest member. A master of judo, Parisyan is on a two fight win streak (Drew Fickett and Josh Burkman). In his entire career, all of his wins have come either by submission or decision. Chonan has only been submitted once in his career. I think the weight difference may play a major factor in the fight. While Chonan will be dropping down 13 pounds from his usual fighting weight, Parisyan is very comfortable in the 170 division. There’s also the fact that many fighters who have fought in a ring seem to have a little difficulty in adjusting to the strategies for cage fighting. Due to these experience factors, I have to believe that Parisyan will come out on top. Our UFC 78 prediction? Winner: Karo “The Heat” Parisyan UFC 78 Main Event(Light Heavyweight) Rashad “Sugar” Evans (15-0-1) vs. Michael “The Count” Bisping (15-0)After fighting to a draw, it looked as though Tito Ortiz and Rashad Evans would have an immediate rematch. However, Tito is trying to renegotiate his contract, so Evans took the Bisping fight when it was offered to him. Evans is a skilled wrestler, while Bisping has the edge in the striking department. However, both fighters are well-rounded, as demonstrated by Evans’ KO of Sean Salmon and Bisping’s BJJ skills. Evans has faced much better competition, though. He’s went up against Stephan Bonnar and Tito Ortiz, while Bisping wouldn’t even be undefeated except for a terrible hometown decision by the judges at UFC 75. Bisping also looked very beatable when taking on Elvis Sinosic at UFC 70. The bottom line is, despite Bisping’s international appeal, Evans is simply the better overall fighter. Look for Evans to take the fight to the ground and pound his way to a victory. Our UFC 78 prediction? Winner: Rashad “Sugar” Evans See also: |
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